Amidst a backdrop of declining financing costs, steady rental value growth, and a nuanced geopolitical landscape, Poland’s office real estate market is poised to attract heightened interest from international investors in the coming years, according to insights from experts at Baker McKenzie. While the need to modernize aging office buildings to align with sustainability requirements emerges as a key challenge, promising trends and evolving market dynamics offer avenues for growth and adaptation.
Resilience Amidst Economic Headwinds
Despite the economic slowdown triggered by the global pandemic and the recent geopolitical tensions arising from the conflict in Ukraine, Poland remains a compelling destination for foreign investors. While the continued adoption of hybrid work models has tempered demand for office space to some extent, the country continues to witness a surge in start-up activity, driving demand for modern, attractive office spaces. Furthermore, foreign funds, which had scaled back activities in the region due to macroeconomic uncertainties, are gradually re-engaging with the market, reflecting renewed confidence in Poland’s resilience.
Weronika Guerquin-Koryzma, Partner at Baker McKenzie leading the real estate practice, underscores the market’s resilience, stating, “The Polish office real estate market is experiencing a correction phase following a period of robust growth. However, it’s important to note that this slowdown reflects a return to normalcy rather than a market collapse.”
Market Dynamics and Investment Trends
Analyses by industry leaders such as JLL and Cushman & Wakefield shed light on the evolving landscape of Poland’s office market. In Warsaw, office stock decreased by 40,000 square meters in 2023, reaching 6.23 million square meters. This reduction can be attributed to decreased development activity, coupled with building renovations and functional changes. Notably, the office investment market witnessed a notable slowdown, with the total value of transactions plummeting by 80% to €427 million compared to 2022, marking the lowest level in over a decade.
Looking ahead, experts anticipate several factors to drive market recovery in the coming year. The initiation of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the US Fed, along with corrections in asset valuations and alignment in price expectations between buyers and sellers, are poised to stimulate transaction activity. Additionally, shifting bank policies, including increased real estate financing and syndication, are further fueling market momentum, driven by debt maturity considerations.
Veronica Guerquin-Koryzma highlights the emergence of alternative financing solutions, with foreign funds offering innovative financing options, signaling a shift in market dynamics and diversification in funding sources.
Adaptation and Innovation: Meeting Changing Needs
Amidst evolving work models and shifting tenant preferences, the market is witnessing notable adaptations, such as the proliferation of co-working spaces within office buildings. Building owners are responding to the demand for flexible leases, catering to the needs of smaller companies seeking adaptable workspaces.
Furthermore, mixed-use projects are gaining traction, reflecting a trend towards integrating diverse functions within a single building. Moreover, the conversion of office spaces to residential units is emerging as a notable trend, aligning with broader market shifts observed across Europe.
Tenants are seeking flexible lease terms and prioritizing cost control measures, including utility consumption management. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are also gaining prominence, with both landlords and tenants emphasizing sustainability requirements and modern, environmentally-friendly office spaces.
Addressing the challenge of aging office buildings, the market is poised to undergo significant modernization efforts to meet zero-emission standards and accommodate evolving tenant expectations. Securing adequate financial resources for building upgrades emerges as a critical challenge, signaling opportunities for strategic partnerships and innovative financing models.
In navigating the evolving landscape of Poland’s office real estate market, stakeholders are embracing adaptability, innovation, and sustainability, laying the groundwork for resilient growth and long-term success. As the market continues to evolve, strategic partnerships, innovative financing solutions, and a focus on sustainability will remain central to driving progress and unlocking new opportunities in the dynamic office real estate sector.
